Home Teams Have Won Less Than Half of Postseason Games Since 2022
The Shrinking Value of Home Field in the MLB Playoffs
The Brewers did exactly what a team with home field advantage is supposed to do. Two home wins put them up 2-0 as the NLCS shifts to Dodger Stadium. That raises a question that has become surprisingly interesting in recent years: how much does playing at home actually help in October?
A surprising trend
In a September 2025 Sports Illustrated column, Tom Verducci looked at the numbers and found a striking result. In the 12-team postseason format that began in 2022, home teams were 60-64 through 2025, a winning percentage just below .500.
The breakdown by round was uneven. The Wild Card round produced a 10-16 home record, the Division Series 27-21, the LCS 16-18 and the World Series 7-9. Home teams were 3-4 in elimination games.
Home field still works in the regular season
Regular season results tell another tale. Verducci noted that home teams won at a .543 clip from 1903 to 1968 and at .530 from 2022 through 2025. Home teams were especially strong in 2025, winning at a .547 rate.
Historically, the postseason home edge had been even bigger than the regular season one. That is no longer true.
What might explain it
Verducci offered a few possible reasons. More playoff teams means more even matchups. Ballparks have also become more uniform, reducing the quirks that once gave home teams an edge.
The sample size is a real limitation. Four postseasons and about 120 games can be skewed by a handful of results. The pattern may not last.
What it means for this series
If home field matters less than it used to, Milwaukee's two wins at American Family Field are not guaranteed to carry over, and the Dodgers' upcoming home games are not guaranteed to swing things back. It works in both directions. The Dodgers cannot count on Dodger Stadium to rescue them, and the Brewers cannot assume they are in trouble on the road.
What matters most is how each team plays. In Game 2, that meant William Contreras, who delivered three hits that tied the game or put Milwaukee ahead. Read more in the recap of how Contreras tied it again and then won it.
Undefeated at home
A few teams have made home field count. Verducci noted that in the wild card era, the 2008 Phillies went 7-0 at home in the postseason and the 1999 Yankees went 6-0. Both went on to win the World Series.
Those runs show that a strong team can still turn its ballpark into a fortress. The recent numbers just suggest it is no longer automatic.
The bigger picture
Home field advantage has long been treated as one of October's biggest rewards. The recent data suggests it may be worth less than assumed. Talent, health and a few big swings still decide most series.